Silver fell nearly 1% to around $33.3 per ounce on Thursday in a likely technical correction after surging more than 3% in the previous session to a three-week high. The white metal continued to diverge from gold, reflecting its hybrid nature as both a precious and industrial metal—making it more sensitive to shifts in macroeconomic sentiment and trade developments. Recent market moves were shaped by evolving U.S.-China trade signals. While the Trump administration is reportedly considering tariff cuts pending talks with Beijing, China has conditioned its participation on a pause in U.S. threats. Still, optimism cooled after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified that no unilateral cuts have been proposed and formal talks have not yet begun.

Silver Pulls Back After Rally on Technical Correction

Copper futures dipped to around $4.83 per pound on Thursday, retreating from three-week highs as investors reassessed the outlook for global trade. The pullback came as enthusiasm over a potential thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions faded. While the Trump administration is reportedly considering tariff reductions pending talks with Beijing, China has indicated it would only engage if Washington halts further threats. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also dampened optimism, clarifying that no unilateral tariff cuts have been proposed and that formal negotiations have yet to begin. Adding to the uncertainty, speculation that copper could be targeted in future trade measures has stirred concerns, but also contributed to the recent price surge as traders positioned for potential supply disruptions.

Copper Eases from Highs Amid Trade Uncertainty

Malaysian palm oil futures fell below MYR 4,030 per tonne, snapping a two-day rebound amid expectations of rising output in the coming months as plantation activity picks up. Traders also remained cautious ahead of the July expiry of the 90-day U.S. tariff suspension, which could reignite market pressure. Despite the decline, prices are still up about 1% so far this week, marking the first weekly gain in four, supported by export estimates showing Malaysian shipments rose between 11.9% and 18.5% in the first 20 days of April compared to the same period in March, according to cargo surveyors. In the U.S., President Trump reiterated his preference for a trade deal with China that avoids tariffs nearing 145%, helping ease broader market jitters, including in edible oils. Meanwhile, India resumed palm oil purchases after a five-month standstill, as recent price corrections made the tropical oil more competitive than soyoil, prompting refiners to restock inventories.

Palm Oil Slips After Two-Day Rally

Gold rose toward $3,360 per ounce on Thursday, following a two-day decline, as lingering uncertainty over the US-China trade war sustained demand for the safe-haven asset. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday that steep tariffs between the US and China will need to be reduced before trade talks can advance, though he emphasized that President Trump will not unilaterally cut tariffs on Chinese goods. Meanwhile, Trump plans to exempt carmakers from certain tariffs after weeks of intense lobbying by industry executives, easing some concerns over trade tensions. Gold has now risen over 30% since the start of the year, with the gold-to-silver ratio reaching its highest level since 1994, excluding the pandemic. The surge has been fueled by waning fears that trade barriers and unpredictable economic policies could undermine confidence in US exceptionalism, prompting investors to shift away from US assets in favor of gold.

Gold Rises on Trade Uncertainty

Brent crude oil futures hovered around $66 per barrel on Thursday, following a nearly 2% drop in the previous session, as investors weighed the potential acceleration of OPEC+ oil output against trade developments. Several OPEC+ members are expected to propose a second consecutive month of faster output hikes in June, while Kazakhstan, a key ally, stated it cannot cut output at its major oil fields and will prioritize national interests in setting production levels. Meanwhile, signs of progress in US-China trade talks supported prices, with reports suggesting the White House may reduce tariffs on China to 50% to facilitate negotiations. However, US Treasury Secretary Bessent noted current tariffs were unsustainable, while White House Press Secretary Leavitt clarified no unilateral tariff reductions would occur. Elsewhere, US-Iran talks could ease sanctions and boost oil supply, but new US sanctions on Iran's energy sector are seen as a setback for negotiations.

Brent Treads Water

WTI crude oil futures hovered around $62 per barrel on Thursday, following a more than 2% drop in the previous session, as investors weighed the potential acceleration of OPEC+ oil output against trade developments. Several OPEC+ members are expected to propose a second consecutive month of faster output hikes in June, while Kazakhstan, a key ally, stated it cannot cut output at its major oil fields and will prioritize national interests in setting production levels. Meanwhile, signs of progress in US-China trade talks supported prices, with reports suggesting the White House may reduce tariffs on China to 50% to facilitate negotiations. However, US Treasury Secretary Bessent noted current tariffs were unsustainable, while White House Press Secretary Leavitt clarified no unilateral tariff reductions would occur. Elsewhere, US-Iran talks could ease sanctions and boost oil supply, but new US sanctions on Iran's energy sector are seen as a setback for negotiations.

Oil Treads Water

Wheat futures fell below $5.30 per bushel, their lowest level since March 5, as improving weather in key growing regions pressured prices. Showers in the U.S. Plains are expected to ease stress on winter wheat crops, according to Commodity Weather Group. Meanwhile, warm and dry conditions in the Black Sea region had supported fieldwork, though upcoming rain could benefit soil moisture for winter wheat. These weather developments weighed on futures despite a rebound in the U.S. dollar. Additionally, a stronger dollar made U.S. wheat exports less competitive internationally, further pressuring prices.

Wheat Futures Fall on Improved Weather, Stronger Dollar

Soybean futures advanced to above $10.4 per bushel on Wednesday, level not seen since February 24, supported by expectations of a de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade conflict. Market sentiment improved after President Donald Trump indicated he would not fire the Federal Reserve head and suggested lower tariffs on China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also signaled optimism for easing trade tensions, though he cautioned that negotiations with Beijing would be challenging. The bullish sentiment in soybeans stemmed from easing tariff concerns, even though China had already completed its U.S. soybean purchases. Soybean futures also received additional support from technical buying, helping to sustain their upward momentum.

Soybeans Futures Rise to 2-Month High

Rice futures have been declining, approaching $13.10 per hundredweight, their lowest level since early April, as the prospect of de-escalating global trade tensions influences the grains market. The downturn is further driven by ample supply availability. The USDA's April report projected higher rice supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks compared to the previous month, driven by increased production in India, Indonesia, and Cambodia. India's state rice reserves, including unmilled paddy, reached a record 63.09 million tons as of April 1, significantly surpassing the government’s target of 13.6 million tons. As the world’s largest rice exporter, India accounts for approximately 40% of global rice trade.

Rice Futures Subdued

Arabica coffee futures maintained their upward momentum, surpassing $3.92 per pound, the highest level since March 25, driven by concerns over Brazil's 2025/26 coffee crop. Forecasts suggest a decline of 3% to 6.4% from the previous cycle, primarily due to dry weather in 2024, according to two separate estimates published by different banks on April 22. Arabica production is estimated to fall by 13.6%, while Robusta should reach a record 24.7 million bags,  growing 7.3% (despite the low production prospects for the variety in Rondônia). The dry weather in 2024 significantly affected flowering and, consequently, Arabica production.

Arabica Coffee Futures Surge to 1-Month High

Brent crude oil futures fell further to below $67 per barrel on Wednesday, an 11% plunge since the start of April amid the possibility that OPEC+ may continue to increase supply in upcoming months. Key member Kazakhstan stated it will prioritize national interests over rules set by OPEC+, signaling higher production to a key pool of consumers, and raising tensions between cartel members as multiple countries struggle to keep production below their quotas. This drove selected members to call for another output raise in June, adding to unexpected plans to hike output at three times the pace expected in May. In the meantime, the US imposed new restrictions on a key Iranian figure involved in LPG and crude shipping, fueling speculation the sanctions could curb Iranian exports. On the demand front, global consumption expectations remained unclear as bearish pressure from the trade war between the US and China clashed against signals from the White House that it might de-escalate tariffs.

Brent Crude Slides on Potential Supply Growth

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry commodities, climbed about 3.1% to its highest point since April 8 at 1,300 points on Wednesday, buoyed by gains across all vessels. The capesize index, which transports 150,000-ton cargoes like iron ore and coal, rebounded by 4.3% to 1,732 points; and the panamax index, which usually tracks vessels carrying 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grains, advanced for the sixth straight session, rising 3.2% to 1,333 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index increased 1.1% to an over two-week high of 964 points.

Baltic Dry Index at Over 2-Week High

WTI crude oil futures fell further to below $62.6 per barrel on Wednesday, a 9% plunge since the start of April amid the possibility that OPEC+ may continue to increase supply in upcoming months. Key member Kazakhstan stated it will prioritize national interests over rules set by OPEC+, signaling higher production to a key pool of consumers, and raising tensions between cartel members as multiple countries struggle to keep production below their quotas. This drove selected members to call for another output raise in June, adding to unexpected plans to hike output at three times the pace expected in May. In the meantime, the US imposed new restrictions on a key Iranian figure involved in LPG and crude shipping, fueling speculation the sanctions could curb Iranian exports. On the demand front, global consumption expectations remained unclear as bearish pressure from the trade war between the US and China clashed against signals from the White House that it might de-escalate tariffs.

Oil Extends Drop on Potential OPEC Hike

U.S. heating oil futures slipped toward $2.12 per gallon, approaching their lowest level in almost three years of $2.00 on April 8th, as softer crude feedstock costs weighed on markets amid Kazakhstan’s announcement that it would prioritize national interests over OPEC+ production rules, signaling higher output. While that additional supply to key consuming regions threatens to push prices lower, it also risks heightening friction among cartel members already struggling to adhere to quotas, despite OPEC+’s surprise plan to boost output in May at three times the pace analysts expected. Offsetting some of that downside, the latest EIA report revealed a 2.35 million-barrel draw in U.S. distillate stocks for the week to April 18—far above the 0.1 million-barrel draw forecast—while heating oil inventories remained broadly unchanged for a third straight week, underscoring resilient demand.

Heating Oil Tracks Crude Lower

GSCI decreased to a 3-year low of 471.00 Index Points. Over the past 4 weeks, GSCI Commodity Index lost 5.07%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 10.23%.

GSCI Hits 3-year Low

Gold prices extended their pullback to below $3,280 per ounce on Tuesday after hitting a record of $3,500 the prior session, contrasting with the rally in other dollar-denominated financial assets that benefitted from expectations of a de-escalation in the trade war between the US and China. US President Trump stated tariffs against would not remain at their current high level and dismissed the earlier threat against the autonomy of the Federal Reserve. The possibility of a return to higher trade flows softened concerns that trade barriers and unpredictable economic policy could threaten the view of US exceptionalism that drove US assets to outperform in the last decades, triggering a flight away from the US and into the safety of gold. Consequently, gold prices rose by more than 30% since the start of the year and the gold to silver ration widened to its highest since 1994, with the exception of the pandemic.

Gold Pulls Back from Record High

Coffee increased to a 4-week high of 394.70 USd/Lbs. Over the past 4 weeks, Coffee gained 0.22%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 71.86%.

Coffee Hits 4-week High

Cotton futures surged to near 69 cents per pound, their highest level since December 23, despite a stronger dollar, influenced by optimism over a potential US-China trade deal. China is the largest consumer of cotton in the world, and the country has a major influence on global cotton prices. Prices were also supported by a strong sales report released on April 17  from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which showed a 76% increase in net sales of upland cotton, totaling 202,000 RB for the 2024/25 season, and an 88% rise from the four-week average.

Cotton Futures Hit 4-Month High

Gasoline futures in the US fell to below $2.1 per tonne, halting the rebound that topped at $2.12 on April 22nd amid the outlook of increased feedstock supply for major refiners and downside risks to demand for top energy consumer. Kazakhstan stated it will prioritize national interests over the production limit set by OPEC+, signaling a lesser restraint in output. Besides increasing supply to a key pool of consumers, the move risks further tensions between cartel members as producers struggle to keep output below their production quotas, despite the body's unexpected plans to hike output at three times the pace expected in May. In the meantime, concerns over the escalating trade war with the United States drove Chinese imports of fuel to slump by 29% from the previous month to 1.38 million tonnes in February, equivalent of 283.2 thousand barrels per day.

Gasoline Halts Rebound

Cocoa futures continued to climb, trading above $9,300 per tonne, their highest since February 20, amid concerns over supply. Data released on April 22 showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 1.48 MMT of cocoa to ports this marketing year from October 1 to April 20, up +11.3% from last year but down from the much larger 35% rise seen in December. Ongoing worries about the Ivory Coast's upcoming mid-crop also remain supportive of cocoa prices. Meanwhile, recent data revealed that demand was holding up well against the backdrop of a surge in prices during the last couple of years.


First-quarter grind data from Europe, North America and Asia released recently showed smaller-than-expected declines year on year

Cocoa Futures at Over 2-Month High

Newcastle coal futures fell to $94 per tonne in April, a 25% decline year-to-date to the lowest in four years, amid the backdrop of low demand ample supply from the world's top producers. A warmer winter in China and other major Asian importers drove demand for power generation and seaborne coal prices to drop sharply at the turn of the quarter. This magnified the 1.3% annual drop in output by Chinese fossil-fuel power plants in the first two months of the year. Still, coal production remained robust. Indonesian production hit a record 836 million tonnes last year, exceeding its initial target by 18% even though growing investments in alternative power sources capped the demand for thermal coal. Additionally, China plans to boost output by 1.5% to 4.82 billion tons this year after the record amount of output in 2024. This is despite elevated stockpiles domestically and in its Asian neighbors at the turn of the spring season, forcing miners to cut prices to find clients.

Coal Extends Plunge to 4-Year Low

Brent crude oil futures erased early gains to fall below $67 per barrel on Wednesday, erasing the week's increases as higher supply from OPEC+ members retook investors' forefront. Major producer and exporter Kazakhstan stated it will prioritize national interests over rules set by OPEC+, signaling higher production. Besides increasing supply to a key pool of consumers, the moves risks further tensions between cartel members as multiple countries struggle to keep production below their quotas, despite the body's unexpected plan to hike output at three times the pace expected in May. In the meantime, the US imposed new restrictions on a key Iranian figure involved in LPG and crude shipping, fueling speculation the sanctions could curb Iranian exports. On the demand front, global consumption expectations remained unclear as bearish pressure from the trade war between the US and China clashed against signals from the White House that it might de-escalate tariffs.

Brent Crude Erases Gains

WTI crude oil futures erased early gains to ease below the $63.2 per barrel mark on Wednesday, erasing the week's increases as higher supply from OPEC+ members retook investors' forefront. Major producer and exporter Kazakhstan stated it will prioritize national interests over rules set by OPEC+, signaling higher production. Besides increasing supply to a key pool of consumers, the moves risks further tensions between cartel members as multiple countries struggle to keep production below their quotas, despite the body's unexpected plan to hike output at three times the pace expected in May. In the meantime, the US imposed new restrictions on a key Iranian figure involved in LPG and crude shipping, fueling speculation the sanctions could curb Iranian exports. On the demand front, global consumption expectations remained unclear as bearish pressure from the trade war between the US and China clashed against signals from the White House that it might de-escalate tariffs.

WTI Crude Pulls Back on Higher OPEC Supply

Cotton increased to a 14-week high of 68.62 USd/Lbs. Over the past 4 weeks, Cotton gained 4.82%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 15.32%.

Cotton Hits 14-week High

UK natural gas futures were near 85 pence per therm, holding close to the six-month low of 82 pence touched on April 8th amid lower demand and higher storages in European neighbors. Warmer temperatures were forecasted in Britain and the North Sea, easing demand for gas intensive heating toward the end of April. Additionally, the wave of arrivals of LNG shipments into Dutch gas trading hubs allowed European utilities to commence restocking after the winter season, limiting supply uncertainty for the rest of the year and easing price pressures for the UK. In turn, macroeconomic uncertainty amid risks of lower trade flows and worsening business expectations maintained the bearish pressure on natural gas.

UK Natural Gas Holds Near 6-Month Low

Cocoa increased to an 8-week high of 9491.00 USD/T. Over the past 4 weeks, Cocoa gained 17.58%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 16.85%.

Cocoa Hits 8-week High

Iron ore futures in China rose to CNY 725 per tonne, extending the rebound from the six-month low of CNY 685 touched on April 8th as the prospect of economic stimulus from Beijing and a less-aggressive trade war in the US eased concerns of poor ferrous metal demand. US President Trump signaled that tariffs on China would not remain at the current levels, softening concerns that the ongoing trade war may be de-escalated. Additionally, Beijing signaled it will support the economy amid strain on industries with exposure to the US markets, raising expectations of an acceleration in the stimulus rollout. This was after bond sales rose sharply per the latest credit aggregates, improving the outlook for construction and liquidity for debt-ridden property developers, among the main ferrous metal consumers of China. Also limiting the pessimism from the trade war, the official Chinese construction PMI rose to a 10-month high in March.

Iron Ore Extends Rebound

Steel rebar futures in China rose to above CNY 3,060 per tonne, recovering slightly after hitting a seven-month low of CNY 3,017 on April 22nd after a softer rhetoric on tariffs by US officials momentarily eased concerns of lower growth in China. The escalating trade war between China and US and its impact on Chinese consumers increased the risk that the country's property crisis may be far from its bottom. Concerns that property prices may continue to fall due to weak consumer demand maintained pressure on the balance sheet of debt-ridden developers, risking their liquidation and removing a large source of demand for global rebar. Lower demand and increasing trade protectionism had previously driven Beijing to signal capacity cuts in the steel sector, but the latest data showed that mills continued to churn out more steel. Crude steel output in China rose by 3.6% annually to 93 million tons in March.

Steel Inches Higher from 7-Month Low

Malaysian palm oil futures rose nearly 1% to around MYR 4,000 per tonne, reversing early weakness after the Malaysian Palm Oil Council said demand from top buyers India and China is expected to increase in the coming months, with palm oil now more competitively priced than rival vegetable oils. Some traders also engaged in bargain hunting after prices hit a seven-month low earlier in the week. On the export front, cargo surveyors reported that Malaysian palm oil shipments during the first 20 days of April rose between 11.9% and 18.5% compared to the same period in March. Meanwhile, China may reduce US soybean imports amid ongoing trade risks, which could further support palm oil demand. In top producer Indonesia, exports of crude and refined palm oil fell nearly 2% month-on-month in March due to higher domestic consumption during the fasting month, although total shipments still reached a four-year high.

Palm Oil Shifts from Early Losses on Demand Outlook

Silver rose 1% toward $33 per ounce on Wednesday, recouping losses from the previous session and tracking a broader rally in commodities amid signs of easing US-China trade tensions. The white metal also decoupled from gold, which pulled back from record highs amid waning demand for safe-haven assets. Instead, silver benefited from its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, making it more responsive to improving macroeconomic conditions. Investor optimism was sparked after US President Donald Trump downplayed the scale of future tariffs on Chinese imports, saying they “won’t be anywhere near as high as 145%,” though he clarified they “won’t be 0%” either. Further lifting market sentiment, Trump affirmed he has no plans to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, easing concerns about central bank independence and policy direction.

Silver Rises Amid Broad Rally in Commodities

Copper futures rose to around $4.90 per pound on Wednesday, marking a three-week high as hopes for a de-escalation in US-China trade tensions boosted investor sentiment. US President Donald Trump eased market concerns by stating that final tariffs on Chinese imports “won’t be anywhere near as high as 145%,” though he clarified that duties “won’t be 0%” either. Earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the current tariff standoff as “unsustainable,” while noting that formal negotiations with Beijing had yet to begin. Further supporting market confidence, Trump reaffirmed that he has no intention of removing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, helping to stabilize expectations around central bank independence and future monetary policy. Speculation that future tariff measures could potentially include copper imports added a layer of uncertainty, but also contributed to the recent price surge as traders priced in the possibility of tighter supply dynamics.

Copper Gains on Easing US-China Trade Tensions

Malaysian palm oil futures hovered below MYR 3,960 per tonne after a strong session the day before, weighed by market volatility amid ongoing global trade tensions. Concerns over higher production also resurfaced, as plantation activities in Malaysia normalized following the recent holiday period. Capping further losses were remarks from the Malaysian Palm Oil Council, which said demand from major buyers China and India is expected to rise, with palm oil now more competitively priced than other vegetable oils. On the export front, cargo surveyors noted Malaysian palm oil shipments during the first 20 days of April rose between 11.9% and 18.5% from the same period in March. Meanwhile, China may cut US soybean imports due to lingering trade risks, potentially boosting palm oil demand. In top producer Indonesia, exports of crude and refined palm oil fell almost 2% in March due to higher domestic use during the fasting month, though total shipments still reached a four-year high.

Palm Oil Eases Slightly

Gold prices eased below $3,370 per ounce on Wednesday, extending its retreat after briefly hitting a record high of $3,500 in the previous session. The decline came amid optimism over easing US-China trade tensions and reduced concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence. On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects a de-escalation in the trade conflict with China soon, calling the prolonged tariff standoff unsustainable. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump backed away from threats to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell after days of intensifying criticism over the central bank’s reluctance to cut interest rates. The improved overall sentiment weakened gold’s safe-haven appeal. Still, bullion remains up roughly 30% so far this year.

Gold Retreats Further

Brent crude oil futures rose above $68 per barrel on Wednesday, extending a gain of nearly 2% from the previous session, supported by fresh US sanctions and a sharp drop in crude stockpiles. The US imposed new restrictions on a key Iranian figure involved in LPG and crude shipping, fueling speculation the sanctions could curb Iranian exports. Meanwhile, industry data showed US crude inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels last week, potentially the largest draw since November if confirmed by official data later today. Broader sentiment also improved following Trump administration comments suggesting trade deals with India and Japan are getting closer, while also noting that the US-China impasse is unsustainable. Additionally, Trump’s assurance that he has no plans to dismiss Fed Chair Powell helped ease concerns about the independence of US monetary policy.

Brent Extends Gains

WTI crude oil futures rose above $64 per barrel on Wednesday, extending a gain of more than 2% from the previous session, supported by fresh US sanctions and a sharp drop in crude stockpiles. The US imposed new restrictions on a key Iranian figure involved in LPG and crude shipping, fueling speculation the sanctions could curb Iranian exports. Meanwhile, industry data showed US crude inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels last week, potentially the largest draw since November if confirmed by official data later today. Broader sentiment also improved following Trump administration comments suggesting trade deals with India and Japan are getting closer, while also noting that the US-China impasse is unsustainable. Additionally, Trump’s assurance that he has no plans to dismiss Fed Chair Powell helped ease concerns about the independence of US monetary policy.

Oil Extends Gains

Gold is down by 2.32%

Gold prices eased to below $3,400 per ounce on Tuesday after having touched a new record of $3,500 earlier in the session, tracking the slight pullback for assets that benefited from safety demand this month amid the first signs of rhetoric against tariffs by the US. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly stated that the ongoing tariff standoff against China is unsustainable, adding that he expects the trade war to de-escalate. Unease regarding mounting tariffs on China and probes to tariff key goods to the US economy drove a portion of global investors to question the sustainability of US financial exceptionalism and shun US Treasuries and the dollar in favor of gold and foreign real money for safety. Consequently, gold prices rose by more than 33% since the start of the year and the gold to silver ration widened to its highest since 1994, with the exception of the pandemic.

Soybean futures edged up to near $10.4 per bushel, mainly driven by technical buying following a day-earlier drop driven by concerns over a slowing economy and ongoing trade issues between the U.S. and China. USDA data cited by Nikkei Asia revealed that China has halted U.S. soybean and corn imports since mid-January, opting for Brazilian supplies instead. Additionally, weather disruptions in Argentina have raised concerns, with dry conditions potentially affecting the development of 40% of the country’s double-cropped soybeans, according to Commodity Weather Group. Meanwhile, the U.S. weather outlook calls for widespread rain that could slow soybean planting after some progress was made last week. As of April 20, the USDA reported that 8% of the U.S. soybean crop was planted, above both the 7% market estimate and the five-year average of 5%.

Soybean Futures Rebound

Wheat futures eased to below $5.36 per bushel, their lowest level since April 4, influenced by a modest recovery in the dollar and technical selling. Additional downward pressure came from rainfall that provided some relief to drought-stricken areas of the U.S. wheat belt, with forecasts predicting more widespread rain in the coming days that could benefit parched crops. Traders also shifted their focus to the upcoming spring growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. The USDA reported on April 21 that 17% of U.S. spring wheat had been planted as of April 20, up from 7% the previous week and above the 12% average for this time of year. However, 45% of the crop was rated in good or excellent condition, down from 47% a week earlier and 50% at this time last year.

Wheat Futures Drop to Over 2-Week Low

Soybean futures hovered around $10.3 per bushel, holding close to their lowest since April 10, pressured by ongoing concerns about the U.S. economy and persistent Sino-U.S. trade tensions.  According to USDA data cited by Nikkei Asia, top buyer China has halted purchases of U.S. soybeans and corn since mid-January.  Meanwhile, forecasts for widespread rain across the Central U.S. may slow planting progress, which had accelerated last week. As of April 20, 8% of the soybean crop was planted in key states, ahead of both the 7% market estimate and the five-year average of 5%. In Argentina, dry conditions threaten the late-stage development of nearly 40% of double-cropped soybeans, according to Commodity Weather Group.

Soybean Futures Remain Subdued

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry commodities, was unchanged at 1,261 points on Tuesday, with increases in the smaller vessels offsetting a decline in the bigger one. The panamax index, which usually tracks vessels carrying 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grains, rose 1.5% to its highest since April 7 at 1,292 points; and the supramax index climbed to its highest level since April 8, rising 0.4% to 954 points. Meanwhile, the capesize index, which transports 150,000-ton cargoes like iron ore and coal, decreased 17 points, or 1%, to 1,661 points.

Baltic Dry Index Holds Steady

Aluminum futures were below the $2,400 per pound mark, holding most of the selloff that bottomed at the eight-month low of $2,340 on April 9th, tracking the bearish momentum for base metals in international exchanges as the trade war between the US and China hurt the outlook on global manufacturing. After an exchange of tariff increases, China settled levies on the US at 125% and added a batch of companies to its export-restriction list, while the US raised tariffs to 145% and threatened additional barriers on selected metals. This magnified the impact of US tariffs on aluminum had on the metal's ample availability in exchanges in Europe and China. Global supply was set to remain high as Chinese smelters signaled that they would continue to expand capacity overseas, in line with mainland Chinese production likely hitting its output cap of 45 million tons this year, forcing smelters to increase capacity abroad.

Aluminum Holds Near 8-Month Low

Rubber futures eased slightly to near 167 US cents per kg, as traders assessed the potential for increased supply with harvesting underway. “Both domestic and overseas production areas are transitioning into the harvesting period,” noted a Chinese commodities data provider. Natural rubber typically sees reduced output between February and May, followed by a peak in production that lasts through September. Meanwhile, concerns over a potential recession, fueled by ongoing tariff tensions, continued to weigh on prices. Lingering Sino-US frictions are dampening demand for rubber-based end-products such as automobiles, home appliances, and footwear. Despite this, China’s auto exports jumped 16% in Q1 to 1.54 million units, offering a glimmer of hope for future rubber demand.

Rubber Futures Drop

European natural gas prices stabilized at around €35/MWh as storage levels continue to rise thanks to steady LNG imports, which remain slightly above seasonal norms despite some global supply outages. With storage currently 37% full after a winter drawdown, attention is on how quickly reserves can be refilled ahead of next heating season. To ease pressure, EU countries agreed to more flexible storage rules, allowing them to fall up to 10 percentage points short of the 90% November target if market conditions worsen. Meanwhile, concerns are lingering around the possibility of a global trade war erupting, with Beijing threatening on Monday to retaliate against countries that follow Washington’s calls to isolate China.

TTF Prices Steady as LNG Imports Rise

Silver prices slipped nearly 1% to around $32.30 per ounce on Tuesday, as investors locked in profits following a strong rally in precious metals. The pullback came after recent gains driven by safe-haven demand amid rising fears over the global economic impact of escalating trade tensions. Market sentiment was weighed down by stalled US-China trade negotiations, with Beijing accusing Washington of abusing tariffs and cautioning other countries against one-sided deals. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s calls for immediate interest rate cuts—and threats to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell—heightened concerns over the Fed’s independence and further eroded investor confidence in US assets. Despite the retreat, silver remains elevated, supported by broader uncertainty in financial markets and continued demand for hedges against geopolitical and policy risks.

Silver Pulls Back on Profit-Taking

Copper futures rose above $4.75 per pound on Tuesday, reaching a more than two-week high as the US dollar weakened amid rising concerns over political and economic instability in the United States. President Donald Trump's renewed calls for immediate interest rate cuts—and his pointed criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell—sparked fears about the central bank’s independence and unsettled investors. Trade tensions also continued to weigh on global sentiment, with China accusing the US of weaponizing tariffs and warning other nations against making concessions to Washington. Copper, widely regarded as a proxy for global economic health, also drew support from speculation that future US tariff measures could extend to copper imports, adding another layer of uncertainty to the market.

Copper Climbs Higher on Weaker Dollar

Malaysian palm oil futures edged higher, hovering near MYR 3,920 per tonne after falling for six straight sessions to a seven-month low. The rise was supported by bargain hunting activity and firm export estimates. Cargo surveyors noted that Malaysian palm oil shipments during the first 20 days of April rose between 11.9% and 18.5% from the same period in March. Meanwhile, persistent US-China trade tensions may prompt Beijing to scale back US soybean imports, potentially boosting demand for palm oil as an alternative. In top producer Indonesia, crude and refined palm oil exports fell nearly 2% month-on-month in March due to increased domestic consumption during the fasting month, though total shipments still hit a four-year high. In India, industry data shows annual edible oil consumption of 25–26 million tonnes, with only 11 million produced locally. However, further gains were capped by concerns over rising post-holiday plantation output and lingering uncertainty around US tariffs.

Palm Oil Snaps Six-Session Losing Streak

Gold surged past $3,450 per ounce on Tuesday, setting a new record, driven by risk aversion amid growing economic uncertainty. On Monday, President Trump reiterated his criticism of Fed Chair Powell, suggested the possibility of removing him, and warned that the US economy could slow unless interest rates are cut immediately. These remarks raised concerns about the politicization of US monetary policy, potentially undermining the Fed’s credibility and eroding investor confidence in the economy. This added to ongoing worries over global trade tensions—especially between the US and China. Trump’s investigation into critical mineral tariffs last week, which could affect relations with key suppliers like China, may further strain ties between the two powers. So far, gold has gained more than 30% this year.

Gold Hits Fresh Record

Brent crude oil futures rose to around $67 per barrel on Tuesday, likely in a technical rebound after falling over 2% in the previous session. However, the outlook remains bearish as progress in US-Iran talks raises the possibility of a deal that could bring Iranian oil exports back to the market. Investors also remain cautious amid economic headwinds from tariffs and growing uncertainty over US monetary policy, both of which are expected to weigh on the broader economy and potentially reduce oil demand. A recent poll indicated nearly a 50% chance of a US recession within a year. At the same time, OPEC+ is still set to raise output by 411 thousand barrels per day in May, though some of that may be offset by cuts from countries exceeding their quotas.

Brent Gains on Technical Rebound

WTI crude oil futures rose above $63 per barrel on Tuesday, likely in a technical rebound after falling over 2% in the previous session. However, the outlook remains bearish as progress in US-Iran talks raises the possibility of a deal that could bring Iranian oil exports back to the market. Investors also remain cautious amid economic headwinds from tariffs and growing uncertainty over US monetary policy, both of which are expected to weigh on the broader economy and potentially reduce oil demand. A recent poll indicated nearly a 50% chance of a US recession within a year. At the same time, OPEC+ is still set to raise output by 411 thousand barrels per day in May, though some of that may be offset by cuts from countries exceeding their quotas.

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