Steel rebar futures fell to around CNY 2,960 per tonne on Thursday, pulling back from a two-week high as renewed global trade uncertainty triggered a broader risk-off sentiment across markets. The decline came after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose unilateral tariffs on trading partners within two weeks to push forward new trade deals. Sentiment was also dented as the initial optimism from reported progress in US-China trade talks faded, despite Trump’s claim that a deal with Beijing is “done.” Meanwhile, the China Iron and Steel Association warned that an ongoing price war in the electric vehicle market is putting pressure on steelmakers. Automakers are reportedly pushing producers to cut prices on steel plates used in vehicle manufacturing, further squeezing margins across the industry.

Steel Prices Fall on Risk-Off Sentiment

Copper futures held near $4.80 per pound on Thursday, after falling nearly 2% in the previous session, as mounting concerns over weakening demand in China, the world’s top consumer, continued to weigh on sentiment. Domestic smelters in China are increasingly turning to exports to offload surplus copper, highlighting softening local consumption. Meanwhile, LME copper inventories are trending lower, with notable volumes being shipped to the US in anticipation of potential import tariffs. On the trade front, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose unilateral tariffs on trading partners within two weeks to secure better trade deals. However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the administration may extend the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for countries showing “good faith” in negotiations. Market optimism from earlier progress in US-China trade talks has also started to fade, despite Trump’s assertion that a deal with Beijing is “done.”

Copper Holds Decline on China Demand Worries

Malaysian palm oil prices rose about 1% to trade above MYR 3,850 per tonne, snapping a two-session decline, supported by stronger soybean oil on the CBOT. Sentiment was lifted after an industry expert at a Jakarta forum said demand from key buyers like India and China is expected to rise in the coming months, with recent price corrections offering attractive entry points. Export volumes are also likely to peak around August. Data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed May shipments jumped 25.6% from April to 1.39 million tonnes, the highest since November. However, prices are still down about 1% so far this week, hovering at 7-month lows, as bearish data pressured sentiment. End-May stocks rose 6.65% to 1.99 million tonnes—the third monthly rise and highest since September 2024. Meantime, palm oil output grew for the third month, up 5.05% to 1.77 million tonnes. A fragile trade truce between the U.S. and China also weighed on prices, as recent talks offered little concrete outcomes.

Palm Oil Rises After Two Days of Losses

Gold rose toward $3,370 per ounce on Thursday, as escalating US-Iran tensions reignited safe-haven demand, while weaker-than-expected US consumer inflation data bolstered bets of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The US government ordered the departure of embassy staff from Baghdad after Iran threatened to attack US bases if talks over its nuclear program fall through. Meanwhile, markets are now pricing in a 50bps rate cut from the Fed by the end of the year, with traders closely watching the PPI data data due later today for further clues ahead of the US central bank’s policy meeting next week. On the trade front, Trump announced on Wednesday that a deal had been reached to revive a fragile truce in the US-China trade war after American and Chinese negotiators agreed on a framework covering tariff rates. He also signaled a willingness to extend the July 8 deadline for finalizing talks with trading partners before higher US tariffs are imposed.

Gold Gains on Rising US-Iran Tensions, Soft US CPI Data

Brent crude oil futures rose to around $69.9 per barrel on Thursday, the highest level in over two months, as rising tensions between the US and Iran sparked fears of supply disruptions. The US is preparing a partial evacuation of some personnel in the Middle East after Iran threatened to strike US bases in the region if nuclear negotiations fail. Further supporting prices, the US and China on Tuesday agreed to a framework and implementation plan to ease tariff and trade tensions, boosting optimism for energy demand from the world’s two largest oil consumers. On the economic front, softer-than-expected US consumer inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting rates by September. Also, data released by US EIA showed crude oil stocks fell by 3.6 million barrels in the week ended June 6, more than forecasts of a 2 million-barrel decline, signaling strong demand.

Brent Climbs as US-Iran Tensions Escalate

WTI crude oil futures rose to around $68.4 per barrel on Thursday, the highest level in over two months, as rising tensions between the US and Iran sparked fears of supply disruptions. The US is preparing a partial evacuation of some personnel in the Middle East after Iran threatened to strike US bases in the region if nuclear negotiations fail. Further supporting prices, the US and China on Tuesday agreed to a framework and implementation plan to ease tariff and trade tensions, boosting optimism for energy demand from the world’s two largest oil consumers. On the economic front, softer-than-expected US consumer inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting rates by September. Also, data released by US EIA showed crude oil stocks fell by 3.6 million barrels in the week ended June 6, more than forecasts of a 2 million-barrel decline.

Oil Climbs as US-Iran Tensions Escalate

Heating oil futures surged to about $2.20 per gallon, a ten-week high, driven by tightening crude supplies, easing trade frictions and firm seasonal demand expectations. US crude inventories plunged by 3.64 million barrels in the week to June 6th, far exceeding the 2.5 million-barrel draw forecast, underscoring upstream tightness. Geopolitical optimism following President Trump’s “deal done” declaration with China and commitments to restore the Geneva tariff truce have stoked hopes for stronger global oil consumption, even as OPEC+ readies a 411,000 bpd output increase in July. Meanwhile, above-normal June temperature forecasts point to robust residential and commercial heating-oil use, keeping the market in backwardation. However, distillate inventories swelled by 1.25 million barrels, twice the anticipated gain, and heating-oil stocks jumped by 487,000 barrels, the largest build since January, tempering the rally.

Heating Oil Rises to 10-Month High

Brent crude oil futures 4.3% to settle at $69.8 per barrel on Wednesday, after President Donald Trump announced a preliminary trade deal with China, lifting hopes for stronger energy demand from the world’s two largest economies. The agreement includes China supplying rare earth minerals and the US easing restrictions on Chinese students, though final approval is still pending. Analysts noted that while trade-related risks have eased, uncertainty remains around the deal’s impact on global demand. Meanwhile, tensions with Iran persisted, with Tehran threatening US bases if nuclear talks fail, keeping pressure on supply. US crude inventories fell more than expected last week, and gasoline demand showed signs of strengthening. Softer-than-expected inflation data also boosted expectations for a Fed rate cut, which could further support oil demand.

Brent Rallies Toward $70

WTI crude oil futures rose 4.9% to settle at $68.1 per barrel on Wednesday, after President Donald Trump announced a preliminary trade deal with China, lifting hopes for stronger energy demand from the world’s two largest economies. The agreement includes China supplying rare earth minerals and the US easing restrictions on Chinese students, though final approval is still pending. Analysts noted that while trade-related risks have eased, uncertainty remains around the deal’s impact on global demand. Meanwhile, tensions with Iran persisted, with Tehran threatening US bases if nuclear talks fail, keeping pressure on supply. US crude inventories fell more than expected last week, and gasoline demand showed signs of strengthening. Softer-than-expected inflation data also boosted expectations for a Fed rate cut, which could further support oil demand.

Crude Oil Surges Nearly 5% on Trade Optimism

Heating Oil increased to a 4-week high of 2.19 USD/Gal. Over the past 4 weeks, Heating Oil gained 3.5%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 10.36%.

Heating Oil Hits 4-week High

Arabica coffee futures traded slightly above $3.55 per pound, not far from an over two week-high of $3.167 hit on June 9, as traders closely monitored the 2025 Brazilian harvest amid persistently low stock levels. A recent Cepea survey noted that rainfall and cooler temperatures across most Arabica-producing regions in Brazil have slowed harvesting progress for the 2025/26 crop in recent days. Meanwhile, Brazil's green coffee exports fell to 2.6 million 60-kg bags in May, a 35.9% drop from the same month last year, according to the Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafe). Arabica exports declined 24.6% year-on-year to 2.4 million bags, while shipments of canephora (robusta and conilon) plummeted 77% to just 202.7 thousand bags. The sharp drop in Arabica exports reflects limited availability, with the harvest only now beginning to gain momentum. Robusta exports fell due to weaker competitiveness against lower-cost suppliers like Vietnam and Indonesia.

Arabica Coffee Futures Edge Higher

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, rose about 3.5% to its highest since November 18 at 1,738 points on Wednesday, after a slight decrease in the previous day, driven by gains across all vessel segments. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, advanced 4.7% to a near seven-month high of 3,096 points; and the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, increased 2.9% to its highest since May 12 at 1,337 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index added 3 points to 922 points, halting six consecutive sessions of decreases.

Baltic Dry Index Rebounds

US gasoline futures climbed to $2.12 per gallon, the highest in three weeks, driven by rising oil prices amid renewed geopolitical tensions and trade optimism. Crude was boosted after former President Trump declared the US-China trade deal “done,” pending final approval with President Xi. At the same time, Trump expressed doubts over a nuclear deal with Iran, while Tehran threatened retaliation if talks collapse. Supporting prices further, US crude inventories dropped by 3.644 million barrels last week, exceeding forecasts of a 2.5 million barrel decline, according to EIA data. Stocks at the Cushing hub also fell by 403,000 barrels. However, gasoline and distillate inventories both rose more than expected, increasing by 1.504 million and 1.246 million barrels, respectively. On the supply front, OPEC+ plans to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in July, continuing its gradual rollback of production cuts.

US Gasoline Futures Rise to 3-Week High

Silver prices slipped toward $36 per ounce as investors locked in profits following a sharp rally that pushed the metal to a 13-year high. Despite the pullback, silver remains supported by resilient industrial demand, persistent supply shortages, and its appeal as a safe-haven amid ongoing economic uncertainty. Fundamentally, the metal's critical role in solar energy, electronics, and broader electrification efforts accounts for more than half of global demand. On the supply side, the market is facing its fifth consecutive annual structural deficit, though the Silver Institute projects the shortfall will narrow by 21% in 2025. Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected US inflation data for May has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates as soon as September, adding further support to precious metals.

Silver Eases Toward $36 After Rally

Gold climbed above $3,330 per ounce on Wednesday, after rising as much as 1% earlier in the session, as cooler-than-expected US inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates by September. Consumer prices rose 2.4% year-over-year in May, slightly up from 2.3% in April but below the market forecast of 2.5%. Core inflation held steady at 2.8%, just under the expected 2.9%. In addition to monetary policy signals, investors kept a close eye on US-China trade developments. Officials from both countries announced a framework agreement aimed at restoring their trade truce, which includes lifting Chinese export restrictions on rare earths. However, the deal still awaits formal approval from both governments. Adding to broader uncertainty, a US federal appeals court ruled that sweeping tariffs will remain in effect while it reviews a lower court decision that challenged the president’s authority to impose them.

Gold Rises as Cooling US Inflation Boosts Rate Cut Bets

Brent crude oil futures rose above $67.5 per barrel on Wednesday, the highest in eight weeks, lifted by optimism over US-China trade talks and renewed tensions between the US and Iran. Donald Trump declared the China trade deal “done,” pending final sign-off with President Xi. Meanwhile, Trump voiced doubts over reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran, and Tehran threatened to strike US bases if talks fail. On the supply side, OPEC+ is set to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in July as it continues unwinding cuts. However, a drawdown in US crude inventories, with API data showing a 370,000-barrel drop last week, suggests tightness remains. Markets now await official EIA data due later Wednesday for confirmation.

Brent Crude Oil Rises to 8-Week High

WTI crude oil futures rose above $66 per barrel on Wednesday, the highest in ten weeks, lifted by optimism over US-China trade talks and renewed tensions between the US and Iran. Donald Trump declared the China trade deal “done,” pending final sign-off with President Xi. Meanwhile, Trump voiced doubts over reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran, and Tehran threatened to strike US bases if talks fail. On the supply side, OPEC+ is set to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in July as it continues unwinding cuts. However, a drawdown in US crude inventories, with API data showing a 370,000-barrel drop last week, suggests tightness remains. Markets now await official EIA data due later Wednesday for confirmation.

WTI Crude Oil Rises to 10-Week High

Rubber futures rose to near 164 US cents per kilogram, their highest since May 29, benefiting from rising oil prices amid signs of improving US-China trade relationship. Meanwhile, the market remained supported by expectations of increased supply prompted by seasonal harvesting. Output prospects for June have improved, with forecasts anticipating production to meet or exceed estimates amid the ongoing wintering season in major natural rubber-producing Asian countries. On the other hand, demand concerns persisted as China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber declined by 11.4% month-on-month in May, according to customs data. On the positive side, vehicle sales in China rose by 11.2% year-on-year to 2.686 million units in May 2025, following a 9.8% increase in April, as reported by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. This could support demand for rubber used in tire manufacturing.

Rubber Futures Near 2-Week Lows

Cocoa futures eased to below $9,400 per tonne, reaching their lowest level since May 29, supported by forecasts of beneficial rainfall in West Africa’s key producing regions, particularly Ivory Coast and Ghana. In top grower Ivory Coast farmers report that sufficient soil moisture is helping the April-to-September mid-crop develop, with hopes for a balanced combination of rain and sunshine to enhance yields, despite ongoing quality concerns.

Cocoa Futures at Near 2-Week Low

Zinc futures climbed above $2,680 per tonne on June 11, rebounding slightly after early-month losses. Prices found some support from renewed optimism following a framework agreement between US and Chinese officials in London, aimed at easing export controls and stabilizing trade ties. While the deal boosted sentiment across industrial metals, zinc remains under pressure from weak manufacturing demand, particularly in China. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, zinc dropped for a third session to 21,845 yuan per ton, its lowest since April. SHMET noted that Chinese buyers are limiting purchases to immediate needs due to sluggish demand. Speculative interest has also eased as traders await clearer signs of follow-through on trade progress and industrial recovery.

Zinc Prices Rise on US–China Trade Optimism

Newcastle coal futures fell below $104 per tonne in mid-June, marking a near two-week low, as concerns over weakening demand from China weighed on market sentiment. An industry group warned that China’s coal imports could fall by as much as 100 million metric tons in 2025, equivalent to an 18.4% annual decline. In the first five months of the year, China's coal imports were already down 8% compared to the same period in 2024, reflecting the country’s continued shift toward renewable energy sources. Thermal coal, which still accounts for the bulk of China’s consumption, is facing diminishing demand as solar, wind, and hydro capacity expand. Adding to the bearish tone, India’s coal imports fell 4.4% year-on-year in April to 24.95 million tons, as surplus domestic inventories reduced the need for overseas purchases. The dual drop in demand from Asia’s two largest coal consumers continues to pressure global coal prices.

Coal Prices Decline on Weak China Demand Outlook

European natural gas futures rose over 1% to above €35/MWh, snapping a three-day losing streak, as hotter-than-normal weather swept across the continent, boosting demand for cooling. Forecasts show temperatures staying elevated over the next two weeks, with cooling needs expected to hit their highest since July 2022. This comes as Europe and Asia head into peak summer, increasing pressure on limited global LNG supplies. Although European gas storage levels have passed the 50% mark, they remain far below typical levels after last winter ended with just 33.5% in storage. The loss of Russian pipeline flows following the end of the Ukraine transit deal has left Europe more dependent on LNG, which has so far been more available due to sluggish Asian demand. Still, planned maintenance in Norway has curbed some supply.

TTF Prices Rebound on Demand Expectations

Steel rebar futures rose toward CNY 3,000 per tonne on Wednesday, hitting a two-week high as traders responded positively to signs of progress in US–China trade talks. After two days of negotiations in London, both countries agreed on a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and reaffirmed commitments made during a recent call between Presidents Trump and Xi. Beijing is also expected to lift restrictions on rare earth exports, while the US may ease curbs on advanced technology sales to China—developments that could improve global trade sentiment and support demand for industrial commodities like steel. However, the China Iron and Steel Association warned that an ongoing price war in the electric vehicle market is pressuring steelmakers, with automakers reportedly urging producers to reduce prices on steel plates used in vehicle manufacturing. This dynamic continues to squeeze margins across the sector.

Steel Prices Climb on US–China Trade Progress

US natural gas futures fell to below $3.6/MMBtu, pressured by reduced gas flows to LNG export plants due to ongoing spring maintenance. Average LNG feedgas demand dropped to 13.8 bcfd so far in June, down from 15.0 bcfd in May and a record 16.0 bcfd in April. Key facilities affected include Cameron LNG and Cheniere’s Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi, as well as multiple outages at Freeport LNG. Maintenance is expected to continue through mid to late June. Despite this, weather across the Lower 48 states is forecast to remain warmer than normal through June 24, which could boost cooling demand. Production in the Lower 48 has stayed steady at 105.2 bcfd in June, slightly below the March record of 106.3 bcfd, mainly due to seasonal maintenance. Meanwhile, gas storage levels are about 5% above average, with analysts projecting a triple-digit storage build for the seventh straight week.

US Natgas Prices Below $3.6

Iron ore futures climbed to around CNY 705 per tonne on Wednesday, reversing losses from earlier in the week as markets welcomed progress in US–China trade negotiations. Following two days of talks in London, both nations agreed on a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and reaffirm commitments made during a recent call between Presidents Trump and Xi. As part of the tentative agreement, Beijing is expected to lift restrictions on rare earth exports, while the US may ease curbs on advanced technology sales to China—moves that could help stabilize global trade sentiment and industrial demand expectations. Meanwhile, the China Iron and Steel Association cautioned that an intensifying price war in the electric vehicle sector is weighing on steel producers. Automakers have reportedly been pressuring steelmakers to cut prices on steel plates used in car manufacturing, adding to margin pressures for the steel industry.

Iron Ore Gains on US–China Trade Optimism

Aluminum futures climbed past $2,520 per tonne, hitting its highest level in nearly a month, as investors welcomed the positive outcome of a two-day round of US-China trade talks held in London. The negotiations concluded with a framework agreement aimed at advancing the Geneva consensus and reaffirming commitments made during a recent presidential phone conversation. As part of the deal, China is expected to loosen export controls on rare earth minerals and magnetic materials, while the US is considering softening restrictions on advanced technology exports to China. While both countries await final approval from their respective presidents, the agreement has raised hopes for a potential de-escalation of the prolonged trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies. The aluminum sector has been caught in geopolitical unrest over the past few months—most notably due to the ongoing trade conflict between China and the US.

Aluminum Futures Hit Near One-Month High

Silver prices slipped below $36.50 per ounce on Wednesday, extending losses for a second consecutive session as investors awaited the latest US CPI report. A stronger-than-expected reading could weigh on precious metals by limiting the Federal Reserve’s scope for interest rate cuts. Markets also digested the outcome of US–China trade talks in London, where officials agreed on a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and reaffirmed commitments made during a recent call between Presidents Trump and Xi. Despite recent pullbacks, silver continues to find underlying support from robust industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy sector. The metal hit a more than 13-year high earlier this week, driven in part by a persistent supply-demand imbalance. According to the Silver Institute, global silver supply lagged demand by 15% in 2024, and another deficit is projected this year—providing a longer-term tailwind for prices.

Silver Declines Ahead of Key US Inflation Data

Aluminum increased to a 4-week high of 2519.00 USD/T. Over the past 4 weeks, Aluminum gained 0.87%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 1.62%.

Aluminum Hits 4-week High

Copper futures held near $4.90 per pound on Wednesday, trading in a narrow range as markets digested the outcome of US–China trade talks held in London. After two days of negotiations, both countries agreed on a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and advance commitments made during a recent call between Presidents Trump and Xi. As part of the deal, Beijing is expected to lift restrictions on rare earth exports, while Washington may ease limitations on sales of advanced technology to China—moves that could ease geopolitical tensions and stabilize demand prospects for industrial metals. On the supply side, LME copper inventories continue to decline, with significant volumes being shipped to the US in anticipation of potential import tariffs. However, signs of softness in China’s copper market are emerging, as domestic smelters increasingly look to export surplus supply amid weakening local demand.

Copper Holds Steady After US-China Trade Talks

Gold rose toward $3,340 per ounce on Wednesday, supported by uncertainty surrounding the finalization of a US-China trade deal and anticipation of key US inflation data. Officials from both countries announced that they had reached a framework to restore their trade truce and lift China’s export restrictions on rare earths, with both sides still seeking their leaders’ approval before moving forward with implementation. Adding to broader uncertainty, a federal appeals court allowed the US’s broadest tariffs to remain in effect while reviewing a lower court’s ruling that the president exceeded his authority in imposing them. The World Bank also downgraded its 2025 global growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 2.3%, citing higher tariffs and rising risks as major challenges for most economies. Investors now look to the US inflation report due later today for clues on the economic impact of recent tariffs and guidance on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Gold Rises on Lingering Trade Uncertainty

Malaysian palm oil prices traded below MYR 3,850 per tonne, marking the second consecutive session of losses as bearish monthly data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) continued to weigh on sentiment. End-May palm oil stocks rose 6.65% from April to 1.99 million metric tons—the third straight monthly increase and the highest since September 2024. Meanwhile, crude palm oil production grew by 5.05% to 1.77 million tons, also up for the third month. Futures remained near seven-month lows, pressured by subdued consumption—particularly from China—and bets of continued output growth through September. However, losses were capped by strong exports, with May shipments jumping 25.6% to 1.39 million tons, the highest since November. In top importer India, demand is expected to recover in the coming months after a recent cut in import duties. Globally, progress in U.S.-China trade talks raised hopes of easing retaliatory tariffs, pending final approval from Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping.

Palm Oil Extends Losses

Uranium futures fell to $70.05 per pound on June 10th, pulling back from a nearly four-month high of $72 reached in late May. The recent rally was driven by the possibility of political support for the nuclear sector, after US President Trump signed an order to cut regulations and speed up licensing process for reactors and power plants—measures that could boost long-term demand for uranium. This marked a significant shift in US nuclear policy, which aims to expand output amid a boom in energy-hungry data centers and AI. However, the current weakness in uranium has made it difficult to advance new domestic projects, as tepid investor interest continues to weigh—an issue echoed by other firms in the sector. Also, uncertainty over future tariffs on uranium imports from Canada and Kazakhstan continues to strain the already limited capacity. The US imports a large portion of its yellowcake from Kazakhstan, which faces reciprocal tariffs of 27%, while Canada faces a softer 10% levy.

Uranium Retreats from Near 4-Month Highs

Gold prices hovered just below $3,330 per ounce on Wednesday, remaining muted as progress in US-China trade talks tempered safe-haven demand. Officials from both countries extended talks into a second day in London, reaching a preliminary agreement to implement their earlier Geneva consensus. While details remain undisclosed, US negotiators “absolutely expect” the framework to resolve rare earth trade issues. Both sides will seek approval from their leaders before moving forward with implementation. However, concerns over the impact of tariffs remain as the World Bank downgraded its 2025 global growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 2.3%, highlighting higher duties and rising risks as major challenges for most economies. Investors are also closely watching upcoming US inflation data  for insights into the economic impact of recent levies and signals on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction.

Gold Steady as US-China Trade Talks Progress

Brent crude oil futures fell below $67 per barrel on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session, pressured by higher forecasts for global inventory builds. In its latest short-term outlook, the EIA projected that oil inventory builds will average 0.8 million barrels per day in 2025, 0.4 million bpd higher than last month’s forecast. The EIA said slowing oil demand growth combined with increasing output is expected to push global production above consumption. Cushioning some losses, API data showed that US crude inventories fell by 0.37 million barrels last week, defying expectations for a 0.7 million-barrel increase and following a 3.3 million-barrel decline the previous week. Additionally, progress in US-China trade talks supported broader market sentiment and helped ease concerns over the demand outlook. Negotiators said the two sides have agreed on a preliminary deal to implement their Geneva consensus.

Brent Falls on Higher Inventory Outlook

WTI crude oil futures fell below $65 per barrel on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session, pressured by higher forecasts for global inventory builds. In its latest short-term outlook, the EIA projected that oil inventory builds will average 0.8 million barrels per day in 2025, 0.4 million bpd higher than last month’s forecast. The EIA said slowing oil demand growth combined with increasing output is expected to push global production above consumption. Cushioning some losses, API data showed that US crude inventories fell by 0.37 million barrels last week, defying expectations for a 0.7 million-barrel increase and following a 3.3 million-barrel decline the previous week. Additionally, progress in US-China trade talks supported broader market sentiment and helped ease concerns over the demand outlook. Negotiators said the two sides have agreed on a preliminary deal to implement their Geneva consensus.

Oil Falls on Higher Inventory Outlook

Brent crude oil futures dipped 0.2% to settle at $66.9 per barrel on Tuesday, as traders kept a close eye on US-China trade talks, which entered a second day in London. Despite the decline, market sentiment remained cautiously optimistic, with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick describing the negotiations as going "really, really well." On the supply front, Saudi Aramco reportedly reduced its July oil shipments to China by 1 million barrels compared to June, signaling that the OPEC+ production increase may not result in a significant supply boost. Meanwhile, Iran announced it would submit a counter-proposal for a nuclear deal, and any easing of US sanctions could allow it to export more oil, potentially weighing on prices. At the same time, the EU unveiled a fresh sanctions package targeting Russia’s energy sector, which could tighten global supply.

Brent Slips Below $67

WTI crude oil futures fell nearly 0.5% to settle slightly below $65 per barrel on Tuesday, as traders kept a close eye on US-China trade talks, which entered a second day in London. Despite the decline, market sentiment remained cautiously optimistic, with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick describing the negotiations as going "really, really well." On the supply front, Saudi Aramco reportedly reduced its July oil shipments to China by 1 million barrels compared to June, signaling that the OPEC+ production increase may not result in a significant supply boost. Meanwhile, Iran announced it would submit a counter-proposal for a nuclear deal, and any easing of US sanctions could allow it to export more oil, potentially weighing on prices. At the same time, the EU unveiled a fresh sanctions package targeting Russia’s energy sector, which could tighten global supply.

WTI Slips as Traders Watch US-China Talks

Cocoa is down by 5.01%

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which tracks rates for vessels transporting dry commodities, fell 0.6% to 1,680 on Tuesday. The capesize index, which typically transport 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, decreased 1.8% to 2,956. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index went down 7 points to 919, a near three-month low. On the other hand, the panamax index, which usually carry 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, rose 2.9%, to a four-week high of 1,300.

Baltic Dry Index Edges Down on Tuesday

Lithium carbonate prices traded around CNY 60,000 per tonne in June, remaining at a more than four-year low due to persistent oversupply concerns. A survey indicated that China's lithium carbonate production rose 1.7% month-on-month, with forecasts anticipating further growth in June. These developments have heightened supply concerns, as recent IEA data showed that supply grew even faster than demand, surging by over 35% annually last year. Meanwhile, sales of new energy vehicles in China rose year-on-year in May, and exports surged, according to the China Passenger Car Association, supported by ongoing government subsidies that promote vehicle exchanges and energy transition technologies. This is a positive sign amid recent trends suggesting that China's EV market has not expanded as rapidly as expected following the boom at the turn of the decade. Earlier, Beijing provided subsidies to battery producers, which triggered a surge in output and contributed to a supply glut.

Lithium Remains at Over 4-Year Low

Nickel futures hovered around $15,000 per tonne, holding within a multi-week range and not far from the over four-year low of $14,150 touched in April, weighed down by persistent oversupply concerns. Supply pressures have been driven by surging production in Indonesia, which now accounts for about 63% of global output. Benchmark prices have halved over the past three years, with analysts expecting the surplus to persist until 2027–2028 as several Indonesian projects near completion. Meanwhile, weaker demand growth—partly due to the rising use of cheaper lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries—has further pressured prices. Analysts now estimate nickel demand from the battery sector at 967,000 tonnes by 2030, sharply down from 1.5 million previously. About a quarter of global producers are now operating at a loss, while Indonesian smelters face compressed margins. Although the government has pledged to manage supply, output remains robust, raising the risk of further price declines.

Nickel Trades Range-Bound

Wheat futures fell below $5.37 per bushel, easing from a two-month high of $5.55 hit on June 6, as improving US crop conditions eased supply concerns. Winter wheat, once rated the second-worst ever last autumn, is now 54% good-to-excellent, the best early-June rating since 2019. This sharp turnaround, driven by favorable weather, supports strong US export prospects, already at a 12-year high for this point in the marketing year. Particularly, hard red winter wheat exports are at a 17-year high. However, harvest progress is slow, with only 4% complete due to heavy rains in key states like Oklahoma and Kansas. Continued wet weather may delay harvests and reduce grain quality. Meanwhile, US spring wheat is also improving, now 53% good-to-excellent, up sharply from its poor start. Though plantings are historically low, favorable conditions could help boost output. USDA may slightly raise its harvest forecast, which already sits near a nine-year high.

Wheat Falls Further from 2-Month High

Zinc futures fell below $2,650 per tonne on June 10th, sliding for the fifth straight session amid global trade tensions and subdued industrial demand. Weak manufacturing activity, especially in China, continues to weigh on sentiment, reinforcing concerns over reduced consumption. Speculators also trimmed positions following earlier gains, as uncertainty surrounding ongoing international trade negotiations and new US tariffs on selected metals increased market caution. Despite tightening inventories, particularly in China due to smelter maintenance, overall demand softness and external macro pressures are keeping prices under pressure. Analysts expect prices to remain range-bound in the near term unless demand signals improve or trade tensions ease.

Zinc Prices Dip on Trade Worries, Weak Demand

Steel rebar futures steadied above CNY 2,970 on Tuesday, remaining sideways for a third session as investors monitored ongoing US-China trade negotiations. Officials from both nations met in London on Monday to discuss rare earth shipments and the potential easing of export restrictions, with further talks expected Tuesday morning. While easing trade tensions offered a degree of support to sentiment, steel prices remained near their lowest levels since September 2024, as weak economic data from China continued to weigh on demand expectations. May’s export growth in China came in below forecasts, dragged down by a sharp drop in shipments to the US amid prolonged trade frictions. Adding to the pressure, global steel markets faced fresh headwinds last week after Trump signed an executive order doubling tariffs on imported steel to 50%. While the move lifted domestic US steel prices, it intensified downward pressure on international benchmarks, particularly in China.

Steel Prices Steady Amid US-China Trade Talks

Tin futures rose to $32,700 in June, the highest in over two weeks, driven by renewed optimism stemming from improved US-China trade relations. Market sentiment was further bolstered by high-level trade talks between the United States and Chinese officials in London, where discussions focused on easing tensions over rare earth mineral exports and advanced technology access. Both sides expressed a commitment to restoring trade flows and resolving long-standing disputes over critical materials. Adding to the momentum, UAE-based firm International Resources Holding (IRH) acquired a majority stake in Alphamin Resources, a leading tin producer in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The strategic acquisition highlights growing global interest in Africa’s critical minerals sector and is expected to expand Alphamin’s production capacity and market influence.

Tin Rebounds to 2-Week High

Gold prices held steady around $3,320 per ounce on Tuesday, as investors awaited further developments in the ongoing US-China trade discussions. High-level US-China trade talks began in London on Monday and were set to continue today, as both sides sought to shore up a fragile truce in a dispute that has expanded from tariffs to restrictions on rare earth elements. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described Monday’s talks as a “good meeting,” while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick described them as “fruitful,” bolstering hopes of progress in thawing relations between the world’s two largest economies. Investors are also looking ahead to US inflation data due later this week for insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. Meanwhile, a survey released Monday by the New York Federal Reserve showed that Americans’ concerns about future inflation eased in May, while confidence in their personal finances improved.

Gold Steady as Investors Monitor US-China Talks

Iron ore futures hovered above $702 per tonne on Tuesday, extending a two-week stretch of sideways trading as investors weighed cautious optimism around US-China trade talks against weak economic signals from China. Negotiations between US and Chinese officials continued in London, with discussions focused on rare earth shipments and the potential easing of export restrictions. President Donald Trump acknowledged that China remains “not easy” to negotiate with but said he’s receiving “good reports” from his delegation—comments that slightly lifted market sentiment. Despite the improved tone, iron ore prices remain near eight-month lows, pressured by persistent concerns over demand from China, the world’s largest steel producer. Recent data showed China's export growth in May fell short of expectations, driven by a steep decline in shipments to the US amid ongoing trade tensions.

Iron Ore Steadies Amid US-China Trade Talks

Copper futures fell about 1% to below $4.85 per pound on Tuesday, reversing gains from the previous session as weak industrial demand from top consumer China weighed on import volumes. Recent data also pointed to persistent deflationary pressure in China, as well as softer-than-expected export growth caused by the ongoing trade war with the US. Investors are closely watching trade negotiations between US and Chinese officials in London, where discussions began Monday over rare earth shipments and the possible easing of export restrictions. Additional talks are expected to continue Tuesday. Despite the short-term dip, copper inventories at London Metal Exchange warehouses remain on a downward trend, indicating steady demand from global manufacturing hubs. However, analysts warn that elevated prices could start to suppress consumption, increasing the likelihood of a near-term correction in the market.

Copper Falls on Soft China Demand

Silver prices retreated to around $36.50 per ounce on Tuesday, halting a recent rally as easing trade tensions between the US and China dampened safe-haven demand. Officials from both countries met in London on Monday to discuss rare earth shipments and the potential loosening of export restrictions, with further negotiations expected on Tuesday. President Donald Trump noted that while China is “not easy” to negotiate with, he is receiving “good reports” from the talks. The pullback follows a sharp rise that pushed silver to a more than 13-year high on Monday, as investors rotated into alternative precious metals amid gold’s relative underperformance. Beyond its role as a haven asset, silver continues to draw support from strong industrial demand—particularly from the solar energy sector. According to the Silver Institute, global silver supply was 15% below demand in 2024, and another market deficit is projected for this year, helping to underpin prices despite short-term fluctuations.

Silver Eases from Highs as Safe-Haven Demand Wanes

Malaysian palm oil prices slipped below MYR 3,910 per tonne, reversing modest gains from the past two sessions as traders reacted to key monthly data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB). End-May palm oil stocks rose 6.65% from April to 1.99 million metric tons, marking the third monthly increase and the highest level since September 2024. Additionally, crude palm oil production grew for the third month, up 5.05% to 1.77 million tons. Prices have hovered near seven-month lows since early May, pressured by expectations of continued production growth through September, aided by favorable weather and replanting efforts. Concerns over rising inventories persisted, especially amid weak demand from key buyer China. However, losses were capped by strong export performance, as MPOB figures noted May shipments surged 25.6% to 1.39 million tons, the highest since November. Meantime, easing Sino-U.S. trade tensions and India’s recent crude import duty cuts raised hopes for stronger demand.

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